Mathematics of the market. Service random flow

The intensity of demand called the demand of goods per unit of time. For measuring the size of demand is applied relative consumption. A unit of measurement of the intensity of demand of the goods sometimes may make the value a=1, i.e. equal to the maximum consumption (P

= P

) per unit time.

The intensity of demand in a general case can vary in different hours of the day, days of the week and months of the year. Observations have revealed that, along with random fluctuations of demand, there are exist, relatively regular fluctuations that must be considered when predicting the quantity demanded.

The most significant fluctuations with the seasons.

For some goods the greatest demand falls on a holiday, (e.g. New Year).

Largely they depend on level of life in this area and structural composition of consumers, which serves the market.

Regular fluctuations in demand may depend on the days of the week. On Saturday and Sunday, the demand for goods of mass consumption can be higher than in the other days of the week. Regular fluctuations in demand are observed for the months of the year. The minimum load on the mass consumer goods, excluding resort towns, is observed in the summer months: June, July, and August. The maximum load on the goods of mass demand occurs in February, March and November, December; should be measured demand in these months.

For strategic goods, such as oil, weapons and etc. plays role of the political situation, global and local conflicts.

For the satisfactory quality of customer service at any time, the calculation of the offer you must perform on the basis of the intensity of demand at a time when he is the greatest.

This time will be called the time of greatest demand – TGD (similar to the Busy-Hour of Greatest Traffic – HGT in theory queueing).

The time of greatest demand – TGD it is a continuous time interval during which the average intensity of the demand is the greatest.

The degree of concentration of demand in the TGD estimated coefficient of concentration

k

=A

/A

,

where A 

. the demand value for TDG;

A

. the demand value during the observation.

1.5.2. Main parameters and calculation of the intensity of demand

The main parameters of the demand are:

· the number of consumer groups -n;

· the average number of requests for goods received from one group of consumers per unit time ;

· the average duration of consumption for maintenance of a single application of t.

Consider the possible composition of consumers, which differ in the average intensity and average duration of consumption:

– individual consumers;

– intermediaries (e.g., agencies for the purchase and sale of apartments);

– Firms and government agencies.

By lowering the prices of the goods the number of consumers may increase. The lengthy existence of the product on the market the number of consumers can be stabilized, and they are not changing or changing insignificantly.. A similar reaction may be in case overproduction when the relative consumption is close to 1(unit).Real consumption is stable.

1.5.3. The average number of requests from one consumer per unit of time

In accordance with the categories source of requests average number of request for goods per unit of time respectively

– from one group of individual consumers;

– intermediaries (e.g., agencies for the purchase and sale of apartments);

– firms and government agencies.

We denote in a general way the average number of applications from groups of consumers from sources of the i —th category,

n

 – the number of sources i —th category.

Then if on the market have k groups of consumers the average number of applications from one group of consumers will be determined from the expression.

c‘= (Σ

 c

n

) / Σ

n

The average duration of consumption (t’).

The duration of one consumption it is to the period of time from the date of acquisition until the moment you start searching the same product.

Time of consumption is always less time of possession of the goods.

For example, the owner of the car bought it 3 years ago. If he started looking for a new car without selling the old, the time of consumption will be 3 years.

The duration of consumption of food products is determined by the physical needs of the person also by the allowable time storage.