Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis

More time is needed for “warming up” resonators than for the emotional “jerking up” of the post-postresonators. Solar activity itself changes from century to century. Historical conditions of development change. The most important of these is the development of workforce productivity, the intensification of the social division of labor. Hence the variability of cycles is a regular psychoeconomic phenomenon.

When power belongs to the hysteroids, in countries that were centers of economic development, that is, those that developed under the influence of more endogenous factors than exogenous, social stratification grows, and an elite with hysteroid traces exploit the people in various ways. This may include raising prices of the consumer basket.

The US was already such a country in the nineteenth century. In previously enumerated accounts, 1868 was a base year for resonators coming to power in the US, for their most vigorous activity (1870 saw a peak in the number of Wolf sunspots, 139!). These were the first elections after then end of the Civil War. Twenty-four years pass for the years of resonator dominance. Starting in 1868, the price of the world consumer basket gradually fell, by almost 10%. The minimal value of the CPI occurred in 1878. Given the dominance of the resonators, the next peak of solar activity in 1883 was not so tightly bound to the rise of the cost of the consumer basket. Nevertheless the trend for a decline in the value of the CPI was disturbed. The resonators had already begun to lose their power, their influence on the society and economy.

The peak of solar activity that is connected with the ascension to power of the postresonators occurred in 1892-1895. In 1893, there were 85 Wolf sunspots. In the period of dominance of the postresonators, the price of the consumer basket swings slowly toward growth. In 1905, the price of the consumer basket again races ahead (a peak of solar activity), but then again falls. The years 1905-1907 were peaks of solar activity that removed the postresonators from the historical arena. But with the arrival of the time and culture of the post-postresonators, the price of the consumer basket grew vigorously. In their period, there occur the tempestuous Twenties of the twentieth century in the USA, the bulging of the financial market, and so on. That is, everything that led to the crisis of 1928-1939. 1917 brought increased solar activity (104 spots) to the benefit of the postpostresonators. But in 1928-1930, with a new cycle of solar activity (in 1928 there were 77 spots), “no” was said to a culture of psychoeconomic behavior of people with increased emotionality.

The cycles oscillate regularly with the change not only of centuries, but also of millennia. See the Wikipedia data on the cycles of solar activity over the course of millennia.

Cycles of solar activity lasted in the twentieth century a little more than 11 years, but cycles do occur that last from 9 to 14 years. The last cycle, which ended in 2008, lasted 12.5 years

(see: http://www.gao.spb.ru/ (http://www.gao.spb.ru/)russian/cosm/astr/index.html).

The form of the cycle is not consistent. In the opinion of the Swiss astronomer Max Waldmeier, the transition from a minimum to maximum of solar activity occurs faster when there is a greater maximum number of sunspots recorded in the cycle.

Economic development in the world, the cycles of economic changes, increasingly aligns with the cycles of solar activity. For the 210 years, as reflected in the charts presented, the consumer basket in the world attained 9 maximum peaks and 9 minimal CPI values. On average, the time from maximum to minimum was 23.5 years.

There were 19 cycles of solar radiation over this time, which is about 11-12 years between peaks of solar activity. To wit, for each turning point in the curve of the price of the consumer basket, there were two peak values of solar radiation.

The influence of solar activity on people’s decisions occurs through activation of the mechanism of opening and closing the circuits of conditioned reflexes. Conditioned reflexes, which are responsible for actions, will change more slowly than those that are responsible for making decisions, such as whether to buy more gold or valuable paper, shares of stock. Therefore, decisions about the overbought of one asset in relation to another are made more quickly, more vigorously, than about whether to install new technology and grow workforce productivity… Emerging social changes, such as war and so on, also affect the cycles. This likewise somewhat transforms the effect of solar activity on people’s economic behavior.

Differences in the decision-making of kinesthetic (and the psychotypes corresponding to them) and auditory types remain fundamental. The kinesthetic types more respect things that are weighty, substantial, that can be felt, touched, that you can buy… The auditory types more esteem that which can be beautifully described to others. They especially come to life when it is difficult to find criteria for cross-checking their narrative, when it is difficult to verify it.

This is generally found around the world. But after all, before the point at which globalization began, the cycles of change in the price of the consumer basket in many developed countries did not completely agree by any means. Only starting in the 1970s did these cycles begin to resonate with each other. There are many examples of temporary variations in the cyclicity of the same type of psychoeconomic changes both in the past and now. But on average a picture gradually emerges of agreement of all fundamental financial and economic decisions, that is, all psychoeconomic cycles.

The degree to which these decisions agree grows during periods of crisis, at the point when the post-postresonators are dominant. This is evident in a chart of the interval from the 20s to the 30s and the interval from the 1990s to the beginning of this century. Here the degree of agreement of change in the main indexes discussed is very high. The CPI only occurs in antiphase. And this is understandable. In a period of strengthening hysteroid personality traits, there is a sharp increase in the decision-making of external reference, that is, decisions begin to agree amongst themselves, automatically, without prodding or external enforcement, but according to the essence of its psychotype. Social motivators remain social motivators. Agreement of opinion for them is vitally important. There is even an excuse for poor decisions – everyone made a mistake… Such logic is a trait, but in the absence of the ability to think objectively and analyze, it is also the salvation of the social motivators.

The resonant alignment of many indicators of economic development in the world has many psychological and social consequences. Thus, it is not by accident that in the crisis period of 1928-1939 and since 2008 this concordance grew sharply. But what does this uniformity of the change in the price of the consumer basket mean, this ratio of the price of material and non-material assets, gold and shares, etc.?

First, this is uniformity of making decisions on these questions by the main agents of economic activity. But these decisions are related to a change in the relationship between the conscious and unconscious. These are also the basis of the change in character traits, although at a slower rate than the change in decision-making. It is not for nothing that they say “Temptations are like tramps – let one in and he returns with his friends.” The decision is the temptation. Frequent, synchronic decisions are the sign of the formation of common character traits, a single system of metaprograms for decision making.

Second, the distribution to the entire world of the conditions of economic development of the center of world economy is the distribution of a unified economic attitude and more. Precisely these conditions necessitate making decisions of a single type. In time this forms or gives birth to intellects of the same type, while it sometimes simply promotes to the forefront people with a certain type of intellect. It is exactly what the elites have, the economically active population of the leading country of the world, that best predicts the behavior of the market in complicated conditions, and corresponds to it. This conclusion sort of flows from the first point. For each psychotype has a corresponding type of intellect. Therefore in some historical periods people with hysteroid traits of intellectual activity succeed at the helm of finance, while at others, it is the relative opposite.

Thirdly, this signifies the beginning of the formation of a unified system of dynamic stereotypes in the agents of economic activity, among the elites around the world, that is, the beginning of the formation of a unified psychotype of the economically active population, the elite of the whole world. In the first place, the psychotype that is mimicked is the one that receives a greater return, and that return is defined in the GDP of the leading country of the world. But we now know that these are the financiers and people obtaining the best returns from financial operations. Usually these are the post-postresonators. In the second place, profit-wise, are the representatives of commerce.

This requires some explanation. If a person makes decisions on the basis of cumulative and factorial causes, then the uniformity of the action of cumulative and factorial causes should lead (under condition of uniformity of the agents of economic activity themselves and external conditions of their activity) to unified decisions. On the other hand, unified decisions are the result of the activity of similar causes. Social and economic conditions of the activities of daily living are increasingly leveling under globalization. The regulations of the WTO are also enabling this. These rules have been accepted by a large percentage of the nations of the world. Members of the WTO are realizing a larger and larger part of GDP through foreign trade. The greatest profit is obtained by enterprises and governments that actively participate in the international division of labor, in foreign trade, and in financial operations. The financial market brings the greatest revenue to those countries that set it up. Financing supplies production and commerce. The acceptance of international trade regulations is nothing other than the acceptance of unified conditions of commercial operations, a single lingua franca, common concepts, and so on. Without analyzing the factors that define success of foreign trade operations, it is impossible to depend on the success of many branches of production in a specific country, regardless of its socioeconomic structure. In that case, then specialists who ensure the success of foreign trade operations and provide financing with occupy an increasingly important niche within the economic elite of the society. And such people become an object of emulation. Largely they are emulated in places where they obtain education and where their children receive education, in the style of thinking, in the theories that they have mastered, in their external attributes, in their culture in the widest sense of the word… At the same time, each social, professional or economic group is a vehicle of specific dynamic stereotypes, of a specific psychotype. This process is objective and is not affected by the process of globalization. The differences between professional groups remain. Essential national differences are also maintained. But that’s just it: currently, the groups of people who make crucial decisions in finance and economics are in the process of forming a unified psychotype. For the time being this psychotype possesses the traits of elitism. Common dynamic stereotypes of economic and other behavior of the world elite are formed. By no means can just any representatives of a specific country join this group. Usually it is only those who obtain a large portion of the profit in finance and emulate the financial elite of the world.

One, two or three generations will be required to form unified dynamic stereotypes in the world’s elite. But this process today is very active.

So throughout the world they begin to wear suits rather than their national dress (although in some places both national and general European traditions are maintained simultaneously), they begin to watch the same films, to like the same writers, etc. And that is how the psychological basis for forming a unified culture is created. Of course, these processes are very complex. The dynamic stereotypes and cultural peculiarities of the poor are different from those of the elite; culture in India is different from that in the US. And these differences are leveled very slowly. While some will remain an extremely long time, let us say, the differences that are caused by the level of people’s income. All of this is true. But here the question is about the agents of economic activity, about successful businessmen, business leaders. This cohort of people is under the influence of both its own people (without them an effective national business cannot be organized), as well as the economic elite of the leaders of world governments (without whom it is difficult to become an effective merchant, or to be included in the international division of labor).

But it has always been this way. These processes have simply become more intensive, more synchronized. Culture, traditions, and customs of a country that is more developed economically are passed first of all to the elite, the economically active population of other countries. Russia is a classic example. In the past we have adopted wigs, knickers, knowledge of the major European languages, dance, music, literature, the details of architecture, the technology for creating ships, etc. from countries with a more developed economy and a different culture. Even earlier, merchants adopted each other’s customs, trade regulations, and rules for interacting. And so on the surface the merchants from different countries were similar to each other. Pantaloons came to Russia from Europe in the tracks of merchants, teachers, scholars, diplomats… The world has always been this way. The culture of the leading economic country of the world has been gradually transmitted, through the people that provide the connection between the economies of different countries, to other citizens. Culture was transmitted, as were dynamic stereotypes. And these changed initially in the merchants, then among the elites, the economically active population involved in trade and the international division of labor, and then in the whole nation.

Therefore, in the conditions of globalization, of uniformity of economic laws, norms, rules of foreign trade (and this uniformity is oriented toward the laws and norms of the leading economic country of the world), in conditions of open markets, the unified psychotype of the elite, the economically active population, begins to form. And it now is formed around the world financial elite. And the more the economic success of the country is tied to the international division of labor and foreign trade, the more intensively this process flows.

Here they are now buying expensive cars, yachts, mansions not only in old-fashioned capitalist countries, but also in a country consistently moving along the socialist path – China. Of course, for now in China this is only allowed for certain individuals as opposed to the entire population. But these individuals are emulated not by thousands or even millions, but rather by a billion people.

But the question of which psychotype the elite is closer to remains fundamental: to the psychotype of the world elite or to the psychotype of one’s own nation? The people may simply renounce those that do not appreciate their culture. The people may make a stand against these events, if their interests are affected. Finally, a revolution against the dominance of their elites may begin…

And if copying the psychotype of the elite of the leading country (group of countries) doesn’t make sense or is uninformed, then it will also be so over time. For we know that eventually the elite of the third generation, the elite with hysteroid traits, comes into power. This has also happened in the leading country of the world. If we follow its culture, differentiation in the society will increase, the rich will get richer, while the poor will become poorer… Such social systems are swept away from the historical arena by an angered populace. It has always been this way.

So what will the elite of different countries do when they understand or simply sense the growing protest of people: be transformed more under the influence of its nation or under the influence of the elite of the leading country of the world? Or think with their heads?

High-profile decision making (and this is underscored by the data in the chart) leads to the formation of a unified psychotype in the elite of various countries, but with time also to a unified ideology of the elite. A unified ideology and even its rudiments reassure the elite, since it creates the sensation (but sometimes merely the illusion) that everything is going in the same direction. For people with an external reference this is one of the most important arguments that everything is going right. And this sensation is in line with the feeling that the right decision has been made (but sometimes it merely substitutes a feeling of confidence in tomorrow). Countries that for now are not affected by this process, such as Iran or North Korea, provoke an ambiguous attitude toward themselves by the “global community.” These are also defensive reactions. The elite of various countries close ranks by introducing uniform rules of the game. And whoever does not subscribe to the accepted values is more or less thrown out of this environment.

So, for the elites, the economically active population of the earth, a single psychotype, a single culture, singular values begin to form on the basis of unified psychoeconomic processes… The process of creating a unified elite of the world will be completed by the formation of a uniform ideology.

One effect that appears with astonishing regularity is that the leading economies of the world themselves begin to be occupied with promoting their culture to other countries once the postresonators, the elite of the second generation, that is, the social motivators, come into power. The resonators, the elite of the first generation, are all wrapped up in work, they have no time for external self-praising contacts, for distribution of their culture, the culture of labor, or of their experience among different peoples. But here the elite of the second, and particularly the third generation have a stake in this. The requirements of maniacal, hysteroid personalities correspond to this. Furthermore, this appears as a unique defensive reaction for the elites, who begin to understand that they are losing the global leadership.

Therefore the creation of different organizations that are occupied with promoting the culture of the leading country of the world among other nations, regularly begins with the coming to power of the second-generation elite, but attains the effect of producing negative emotions from such enlightenment in other nations when the post-postresonators, the elites of the third generation, come into power.

Before the time of globalization of the economy, the place of the leading world government was taken by another government. But what will happen in the globalization period with a government that did not bear the burden of world leader?

Here several tendencies or possibilities overlap.

The first tendency. In the leading country of the world, the elite of the second generation and then the third generation come to replace the first-generation elite. The loss of power by the resonators, the emotionalization of the economically active population, leads sooner or later to the loss of this country’s leading position in the world. The elite of the peripheral countries that surround this country-leader will begin to form around the culture of the elite of that country that grabs the leadership. In the final analysis, reason and the resonators may prevail.

The second tendency. In a period of globalization, at the point when the third-generation elite, the post-postresonators, come into power, the processes in the leading country of the world, from technological innovations to the culture at large, will shift to peripheral countries. Hence, there is increasing stratification of the population, an increased role and significance of the objects of material prestige, emotionalization of social processes, etc. That is, the culture of the leading country of the world begins to form not only among the elites, but for everyone, as this culture does not correspond to the interests of the rapid, progressive development that is stratifying the society. In the entire world population, especially that population with an external reference, traits of the post-postresonators will increase among the extroverts. Introverts, schizoids, countries with marked introverted cultures such as India, China, Japan, and Russia, will be inoculated against such culturological changes.

Therefore it is not impossible to divide the world’s countries into those that hold on to the culture and values of the US and those that are oriented to the values and culture of China and similar countries. That is, countries or nations choose in favor of an extroverted or an introverted culture.

In any case, a new system of contradictions becomes intensified: between the elite and the people of their country (when accepting the culture of the leading country, the US) or between different countries (when they accept the culture of a new, rapidly developing world economic center). Of course, these are processes that affect decades, the understanding of which causes protest and defensive reactions in people who think in smaller slices of time.

But if we think in decades, then the probable socio-political conclusions that derive from the acknowledging the tendencies described are unavoidable.

The quality of the population in the US and in the majority of European countries is becoming increasingly worse through successive peaks of solar activity. This thesis became more evident after the issuance of Thilo Sarrazin’s book Germany Is Doing Away With Itself.

If by the time of a definitive decline in the quality of the population it has been possible to create an effective economy that manufactures nutrition products and articles of daily necessity, the population of the prosperous countries of the West will be divided into two social aggregates. Some produce and thus have higher standards of consumption, while others just consume. But since they consume dependently, then they will be forced to comply with lower standards of consumption. With each passing year, those who consume will be penetrated by a dependent psychology. Their strength of character will fall, expectations of what the powers-that-be should do for them will grow. Classical democracy (the power of the majority) in this case leads this sort of country to decay, or else one way or another power will transfer not to the strong, but to the weak; not to the producers, but to the consumers …

Such a division is also possible by country or groups of countries. There will be some countries that are capable of effective production, and there will be others whose capacity is weakened. Incidentally, this division is already evident on the map of contemporary Europe.

Social conflicts will grow. Under pressure of the expectation of the majority, no power, whether on the right or left, will be able to reform the national economy. The power structure will totally cease to meet the objective need for firm control of the country given the updated demand for orientation toward the obtainment of distant goals (involving several periods of presidential rule) to avoid the catastrophic consequences of the development of socio-economic processes. This is the sociopsychological and political basis for a possible contraction in the domain of the development of democracy and the transition to another structure of state management, to other regimes.

Periodical uprisings, insurgencies and even forcible provisional seizure of power may become permanent in some European countries, as they now appear to be in some African countries. However, each successive power will not be able to fulfill the obligations taken on, and will be swept away by the subsequent outrage of frustrated citizens. In such a situation objectively a significant portion of the population will be more interested not in democracy and the freedom of the individual, but in order. There are generally more than enough people who agree to undertake such unconstitutional functions. The law enforcement agencies can also undertake these functions. Management according to the example of Pinochet in Chile may seem in new conditions acceptable for the majority.

The availability of the example of successful social development in China sharply strengthens the position of the movements and parties on the left.

The elite of all countries will be found under the influence of cyclically repeating psychoeconomic and social-psychological changes. What has been described belongs to the more unwelcome combination of a type of elite and the economically active population.

But while this has not yet happened (and this may not happen with appropriate preemptive decisions), the psychoeconomic changes in the US that were characteristic for various stages of development of that country, under globalization will now appear in many countries of the world.

Currently there are significant differences in the rates and phases of psychoeconomic changes in the developed countries and the BRICS countries. And for now the psychoeconomic changes in the US and China are in relative antiphase. Nevertheless, the general tendency of globalization is related to synchronization of psychotypological and psychoeconomic changes in the world. In any case, change in the opinion of participants in the market when buying stock or material and non-material assets is becoming synchronized. The change of the psychotypes of the economically active population is also gradually being synchronized.

This synchronization most of all concerns those who buy stock or material assets. If the profit from such purchases becomes an important source of the existence of the entire country, then the culture, the entire country will move toward the culture of the financial establishment, toward hysteroid values.

If material production brings the main profit for now, then in a given country two cultures will form and co-exist. One among those people whose profit is derived primarily in the world financial market. This will be a circle of people oriented toward the culture of the world financial establishment. But at the same time there will exist in this country some portion of the elite, the economically active population, that is oriented toward the culture of the resonators, the organizers of actual production, to the culture of working people.

Meanwhile, the two cultures will co-exist in the leading countries of the world. One is oriented to the culture of the leading country (countries) of the world. It is accepted to call its representatives in national business the “comprador bourgeoisie.” Meanwhile it is common to call members of the business elite who are oriented toward the internal economy the “national bourgeoisie.” They form a distinct culture.