All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain’s Political Class

17 May – The Sun splashes on sex smears against Boris Johnson’s wife. Michael Heseltine condemns Johnson’s ‘preposterous’ claims

19 May – Eurosceptic rebels force Cameron to accept amendment to the Queen’s Speech on transatlantic trade deal

21 May – Osborne claims house prices will be 18 per cent lower in the event of Brexit

25 May – Ryan Coetzee reports to Stronger In chiefs that the economic message is not working

26 May – Immigration figures are released showing net migration to the UK rose to 333,000 in 2015

27 May – Purdah period begins, preventing the government from publishing further pro-Remain documents. Downing Street staff move to Stronger In HQ

29 May – Gove and Johnson write to Cameron accusing him of ‘corroding public trust’ with his immigration pledges. Andrew Bridgen says Cameron is ‘finished’ as PM

30 May – In the first of a series of ‘alternative government’ pledges, Vote Leave says a Brexit administration would scrap VAT on household energy bills

1 Jun – Gove and Johnson announce that a Brexit government would introduce an Australian-style points system to control immigration

2 Jun – Boris Johnson auctions a cow, describing it as a ‘beautiful milker’

3 Jun – Vote Leave vows to spend £100 million of the £350 million on the NHS instead of Brussels

5 Jun – John Major denounces Boris Johnson for a ‘squalid’, ‘deceitful’ and ‘depressing’ campaign

7 Jun – Deadline for voter registration crashes government website. Cameron calls out Leave’s ‘six lies’ in an emergency press conference

9 Jun – On a visit to Northern Ireland, Tony Blair and John Major warn that Brexit could break up the UK. Amber Rudd attacks Boris Johnson in first three-way TV debate. Andrew Cooper’s warning about falling Labour support for Remain prompts crisis meeting

12 Jun – In a Downing Street meeting, Cameron decides not to make a ‘vow’ on immigration

13 Jun – Stronger In clears the decks for ‘Labour week’, starting with a speech by Gordon Brown

14 Jun – Cameron thinks he should make an immigration pledge, but is again talked out of it. Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper also demand changes to freedom of movement

15 Jun – Cameron calls Angela Merkel but does not ask her for anything. George Osborne unveils an ‘emergency budget’ to plug a £30 billion black hole in the event of Brexit. Sixty-five Tory MPs vow to vote it down. Vote Leave unveils a ‘Brexit Queen’s Speech’. Flotillas led by Nigel Farage and Sir Bob Geldof clash on the Thames

16 Jun – Farage unveils ‘Breaking Point’ immigration poster. Labour MP Jo Cox murdered. Both campaigns suspended

19 Jun – A passionate Cameron tells Question Time audience Winston Churchill wouldn’t have ‘quit’ on Europe

21 Jun – Final ‘Great Debate’ at Wembley Arena. Boris Johnson says 23 June can be Britain’s ‘Independence Day’

23 Jun – Referendum day

24 Jun – Broadcasters declare Leave victors at 4.39 a.m. Cameron resigns at 8.15 a.m. Johnson and Gove hold a press conference and discuss plans to run a ‘Dream Team’ leadership bid. Labour MPs say they will call a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn

25 Jun – Gove calls Johnson to say he will back him. Johnson plays cricket at Althorp House. Hilary Benn phones shadow cabinet to see if they will resign

26 Jun – Eleven members of the shadow cabinet quit after Benn is fired by Corbyn. Johnson and Gove meet at Thame, Oxfordshire, to discuss Johnson’s campaign

27 Jun – Johnson’s Telegraph article on Brexit is criticised for backing both the single market and free movement

28 Jun – Labour MPs vote by 172 to forty for Jeremy Corbyn to quit. He refuses. Breakfast meeting of Johnson, Gove and aides at Lynton Crosby’s office to settle campaign tensions. Sarah Vine writes an email to Gove telling him to ‘be your stubborn best’

29 Jun – Stephen Crabb launches leadership bid. Johnson pulls out of hustings, struggles to write his launch speech, and tries and fails to recruit Andrea Leadsom. Gove decides he cannot support Johnson

30 Jun – Gove issues statement saying Johnson is not ready to be prime minister and that he will run for the leadership. Theresa May and Liam Fox also launch their campaigns. Johnson withdraws

1 Jul – Gove launches his campaign

4 Jul – Nigel Farage resigns as Ukip leader for the third time

5 Jul – May tops the first Tory leadership ballot with 165 votes, with Leadsom on sixty-six, Gove on forty-eight, Crabb on thirty-four and Fox on sixteen

6 Jul – Chilcot report on Iraq War published. Nick Boles’s text urging MPs to vote tactically against Leadsom leaks, damaging Gove

7 Jul – Leadsom supporters march on Parliament. In second ballot, May wins 199 votes, Leadsom eighty-four and Gove forty-six

9 Jul – In an interview with The Times, Leadsom implies she is better-qualified than May because she is a mother

11 Jul – Leadsom drops out of contest. May becomes Tory Party leader. Angela Eagle launches leadership challenge against Corbyn. Owen Smith says he will also run

12 Jul – After a seven-hour meeting, Labour’s NEC rules that Corbyn is automatically on the ballot paper, ending the attempted coup

13 Jul – Cameron takes final cabinet and PMQs. May visits Buckingham Palace and becomes prime minister. She vows to create ‘a country that works for everyone’

19 Jul – Eagle drops out, leaving Smith to take on Corbyn

24 Sep – Corbyn re-elected Labour leader with 62 per cent of the vote

Introduction

Demons Unleashed (#u10d7264a-ba90-589b-8570-219e3969fcc3)

Not long before David Cameron moved into Downing Street he spent some time with an old friend, a man very successful in his own field but who regarded the prospect of his old mate Dave becoming the head of government with some bewilderment. ‘Isn’t it odd,’ he said, ‘that by the next time I see you, you will be the prime minister?’ The friend asked whether he was ready, whether Cameron felt up to the job. With the insouciance that became his trademark, Cameron replied, ‘How hard can it be?’

By 10 o’clock on the evening of 23 June 2016, a little over six years later, Cameron knew the answer to that question. The polls had just closed on the third major constitutional referendum of his premiership, a vote in which he had placed Britain’s membership of the European Union and his own career on the line. At that point Cameron was still expecting to win. His pollster and friend Andrew Cooper had published a poll that day putting the Remain campaign ten points ahead. Cooper’s internal tracking poll had things closer than that, but most of the twenty-five aides and allies gathered on the first floor of 10 Downing Street, eating moussaka and drinking bottled beer, expected to scrape a win. David Cameron was a winner. He had been in trouble before, but he had emerged triumphant from the 2011 referendum on electoral reform and again in the Scottish independence plebiscite in September 2014. Just 413 days earlier friend and foe alike had doubted him, but at the 2015 general election he had won the first parliamentary majority by a Conservative leader in twenty-three years.

Nevertheless, as Cameron circulated in the Terracotta Room, aides could see he was nervous – the calmest man there, but nervous nonetheless. With several of them he found time to joke ‘I’ve got both of my speeches ready!’ One for victory, one for defeat.

Nerves in the room were eased somewhat at 10 o’clock as the BBC announced that YouGov’s final poll had given Remain a 52–48 lead. Within three minutes the pound had risen on the currency markets and Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party and the man who had done most to force Cameron into calling a referendum, had all but conceded defeat.

At around midnight, as the first results approached, Cameron and a smaller group of friends and aides moved to the Thatcher Room, a book-lined study where the former prime minister had liked to work. Cameron looked as if he was working too, peering down at a laptop. ‘I’d never seen him on a computer before,’ one friend said.

Cameron was poring over a list drawn up by Jim Messina, the US voter-targeting expert who had helped both Barack Obama and Cameron get re-elected. His model showed how well the Remain team would have to do in each area of the country to win. When Newcastle was first to declare at midnight, voters there backed Remain by the slenderest of margins: 50.7 per cent to 49.3 per cent. The Downing Street staff looked at Messina’s model and saw that they needed a 52–48 win. A hoped-for four-point lead had evaporated into a margin of less than two points. Pulses quickened. Twenty minutes later, Sunderland delivered a stunning Leave victory, by 61 per cent to 39. Messina’s model said Remain needed a 60­–40 loss there to be on par. Two points short again.

Peering at the laptop like Downing Street’s in-house psephologist, Cameron began commentating on his own downfall. ‘He was comparing the results on Messina model,’ an aide said. ‘He’d say, “Well, that’s three points short,” or “That’s two points short.” He was incredibly calm.’ And that was the story of the evening. At each turn, Remain was falling two to four points below expectations. Cameron’s inner circle pinned their hopes on good results in Scotland and London. When they started to come in, Cameron said, ‘We could still pull this back.’

But while Remain was winning big in its heartlands, turnout was lower than required. In Leave’s strongholds, three million people who never usually voted had turned out. Gradually, and with a minimum of drama, hope began to fade. ‘There was no panic,’ one young adviser remarked, just a strange and creeping realisation that everything was going wrong, that the gamble had failed.